There is no end in sight to the Centre's inflation woes. The wholesale price index-based inflation is expected to rise to 11.42 per cent for the week ended June 14, data for which will be released on Friday.
Food inflation has touched a 10-year-high of 19.95 per cent and the inflation rate based on the Wholesale Price Index, which was estimated at 4.78 per cent, is expected to cross 6 per cent by the end of the month.
After three consecutive years of infusing huge funds, foreign portfolio investors retreated from the Indian equity markets in a big way in 2022 with the highest-ever yearly net outflow of nearly Rs 1.21 lakh crore. The huge outflow, which surpasses by a big margin the previous record of Rs 53,000 crore net withdrawal in 2008, came amid aggressive rate hikes by central banks globally but 2023 is expected to be better on positivity about overall macroeconomic trends in India, experts said. Apart from global monetary tightening, volatile crude, rising commodity prices along with Russia and Ukraine conflict led to an exodus of foreign money in 2022.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday announced the adoption of the New Delhi Leaders Declaration, a significant victory for India's G20 presidency that came amid increasing tensions and divergent views over the Ukraine conflict.
Heightened geopolitical uncertainties will lead the Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel to opt for a status quo at the next week's meeting, Axis Bank's chief economist Saugata Bhattacharya said on Monday. Bhattacharya said he had earlier expected a tightening action at the policy meet scheduled for April 6-8 but the increased uncertainties on the geopolitical front due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its impact on commodity prices makes him now think that RBI will defer such an action. He said the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may hike rates in the second half of FY23 by up to 0.50 per cent.
Oil billionaire T Boone Pickens has predicted that crude oil will touch $150 soon. And he also says the one commodity that will grow bigger than oil is natural gas. In the last one year, natural gas prices across the world, especially in the US, UK and Russia have more than doubled.
This means lower losses on fuel sales by Indian oil companies and a shrinking oil subsidy bill for the government.
Fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are expected to see muted topline growth, with uneven spread of the monsoon impacting demand. Rural demand recovery, too, remains elusive in the July-September quarter. Brokerages expect volumes to remain steady in the quarter on a sequential basis.
'They can transition from short to long-duration funds when the yield curve normalises.'
Riding on an improved show across parameters, TVS Motor (TVS) outperformed larger two-wheeler peers Hero MotoCorp (Hero) and Bajaj Auto (Bajaj) during the September (Q2 of FY23) quarter. The Chennai-based firm, which has the most-diversified portfolio among two-wheeler majors, posted a 28 per cent jump in revenues. This compares to 18 per cent growth for Bajaj Auto and single-digit uptick for Hero MotoCorp.
The meeting assumes importance as prices of essential commodities continued to surge though the rate of price rise has come down in the recent weeks.
The central government is likely to further consolidate its fiscal deficit by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.9 per cent in FY24 from 6.4 per cent in FY23, according to a recent report released by Goldman Sachs on Tuesday. In the current fiscal year, there is going to be an upside of 0.5 per cent on the receipts side due to higher nominal GDP growth, and higher tax buoyancy because of the formalisation, the report said. The upside to expenditure is mainly going to come from incremental subsidies (0.8 per cent of GDP), in both food and fertilizer, it said. The upcoming pre-election Budget will carry forward the trend of the increased capital expenditure seen in recent years.
Hero MotoCorp, India's largest two-wheeler maker, has seen a decline in its market share in rural areas since 2018, losing ground to major competitors such as TVS Motor Company, Bajaj Auto, and Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India (HMSI), according to data from JATO Dynamics reviewed by Business Standard. Hero's share of rural two-wheeler sales in India has dropped from 40.4 per cent in 2018 to 33.3 per cent in 2023. In contrast, Bajaj's share increased from 12.7 per cent in 2018 to 13.9 per cent, HMSI's from 21.8 per cent to 22.2 per cent, and TVS' from 15.5 per cent to 17.8 per cent. Suzuki Motorcycle India has also seen its share rise from 1.7 per cent to 2.5 per cent.
The rise in US bond yields spooked investors last week and there could a further increase given the inflation dynamics, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies. "The US bond market sell-off has continued over the past week, and with it the increased potential for an inflation scare. "Still, there is plenty of scope for bonds to sell off more since the last time the 5-year forward inflation expectation rate was running at current levels (namely in early December 2018), the 10- and 30-year bond yields were significantly higher at 2.91 per cent and 3.17 per cent, respectively," the market guru said in his newsletter GREED & fear. The 10-year and 30-year US Treasury finished at 1.34 per cent and 2.13 per cent, respectively, last week.
G-20, the grouping of developed and emerging market economies, will focus on food security but issues concerning India like rising prices of vegetables may not come up for discussions at a meeting in Paris next week.
The CII has suggested a 5-point agenda on the measures that need to be undertaken by central and state governments to stave off the adverse effects of a deficient monsoon. Let's find out what this agenda is. . .
The government has chosen to profiteer off people's misery and suffering, Gandhi said.
Despite onion prices hitting Rs 130 a kg in the wholesale market, farmers have not gained enough to make a profit this season. Farmers and other stakeholders in the value chain estimate that 30 per cent crop damage this kharif season would result in a decline of about 2 million tonnes in output from Lasalgaon district alone. Similar crop damage across the country could lead to an onion shortage of nearly 7 million tonnes this year.
The company sells various utility vehicles ranging from newly launched compact SUV XUV300 to premium SUV Alturas G4.
Households may be feeling the pinch of higher inflation but corporate India is enjoying record high margins and profits. The combined quarterly net profit of listed companies scaled a new high in the April-June 2023 quarter owing to a sharp rise in operating and net profit. The expansion in margins more than compensated for the slowdown in revenue growth, which slipped into single digits in Q1FY24 after a gap of nine quarters.
India is well positioned to continue to be the fastest-growing major economy next year, which may mark the lowest global growth since the millennium began barring the pandemic and the global financial crisis, according to Tata Sons chairman N Chandrasekaran. In his New Year message to around 9.35 lakh employees of the Tata Group, he said increasing consumption, consumer confidence and investment will support India's growth story although the global environment has several risk factors, including the energy crisis in Europe, the battle to contain inflation to avoid recession, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts. "Post-pandemic, India opened up, and we have returned to living our daily lives normally, in a year that saw the nation turn 75 years old.
Weak consumer sentiment across urban and rural markets due to slow farm inflows, subdued agri-commodity prices, rising cost of ownership as a result of regulatory changes including safety, emissions, vehicle registration, along with a rise in interest cost/EMI, have impacted demand.
A downturn in Indian demand could hit global gold prices.
Things are looking up for engineering firms and Siemens is likely to be one of the leading beneficiaries. Apart from the generic revival in activity, which is expected to continue through the 2023-24 financial year (FY24), the Budget has a strong infrastructure thrust, which works in Siemens' favour. The company reported a standalone Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) of Rs 550 crore (up 66 per cent year-on-year or YoY) in Q1FY23 (Siemens follows the October-September accounting year).
'It is going to be a tough balance for the RBI to manage economic stability and ensure smooth government borrowing.'
Prices are likely to rise further as demand grows in coming months due to festivals
Equity investors have become poorer by more than Rs 18.74 lakh crore as the market continued to remain bearish for the fifth session on the trot on Thursday. The 30-share BSE Sensex tumbled 1,158.08 points or 2.14 per cent to end below the 53,000-level at 52,930.31 points on Thursday. Markets have been falling for five straight sessions and the BSE benchmark has tumbled 2,771.92 points or 4.97 per cent during this period.
Dairy, sugar prices fall sharply, despite El Nio fears
Benchmark indices continued their downtrend on Monday, with the Sensex falling 84.88 points, tracking selling in index majors Infosys and Reliance Industries along with weak global equities. The 30-share BSE benchmark went lower by 84.88 points or 0.15 per cent to settle at 56,975.99 after recovering some lost ground during the fag-end of trade. During the day, it tanked 648.25 points or 1.13 per cent to 56,412.62. The NSE Nifty declined 33.45 points or 0.20 per cent to close at 17,069.10.
Following are the highlights of the Economic Survey 2022-23 tabled in Parliament on Tuesday
India's economy is expected to grow 7.5-8 per cent this fiscal year with exports playing a key role in the country's success story, CII president TV Narendran said on Monday. However, he said the country needs to remain prepared for any fallout of next wave of COVID-19 pandemic, and the impact of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. "We are confident that the economy can retain a high growth trajectory this year. "So, we are very optimistic on the export front. "Exports will be a key component of India's success story going forward," Narendran said.
The Modi administration has been unable to initiate key reforms.
Hero MotoCorp, a major player in the two-wheeler market, has seen a 9 per cent rise in its stock since the beginning of the month. This increase, driven by the largest motorcycle company by volume, is attributed to expectations of a revival in rural sales due to normal monsoons, government measures to boost consumption, recent market share gains, and a large valuation discount compared to peers. In the near term, the company's volume performance and growth trajectory, particularly in rural markets and entry-level segments, are expected to be key drivers.
Mahindra & Mahindra was the biggest gainer on the Sensex chart, rising 2.56 per cent, followed by Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra, Nestle, Power Grid, Infosys, HCL Technologies, Axis Bank, UltraTech Cement and L&T. In contrast, Asian Paints, ITC, Bajaj Finserv, Bharti Airtel and Tata Motors were among the laggards.
After facing sharp rise in prices of most food items in 2008, consumers can look forward to a relatively comfortable situation this year in commodities like wheat, rice and edible oil. However, sugar prices, which have remained depressed for the last two years, are likely to move up.
Here are the 10 key issues likely to be the centre of discussion in the seven-phase general elections that begin on April 19.
American brokerage firm Morgan Stanley on Thursday sharply cut its India FY23 real GDP growth estimate to 7.9 per cent, mainly due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on oil prices. Analysts at the brokerage also raised their inflation forecast to 6 per cent - the upper end of the tolerance band for the RBI - and flagged stagflation risks because of the ongoing events. "We believe that the ongoing geopolitical tensions exacerbate external risks and impart a stagflationary impulse to the economy," they said. It can be noted that stagflation involves a stagnancy in output or growth, coupled with high inflation.
'If the third wave of Covid infections is as bad as the second one, the market may get very polarised with a preference for blue-chips with low volatility.'
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies anticipate sustained volume pressures in the January-March quarter (Q4) coupled with sluggish rural growth during the period. Brokerages estimate top-line growth to be in low single digits in the quarter. Also, the late onset of winter had an impact on demand for winter products which range from moisturisers to hot beverages.
With fuel being the main input cost for the transport sector, rise in cost of operations is a given. The sector is unsure on the extent of being able to pass this on through rentals or to absorb it with higher volumes.
